The Congressional Budget Office estimates a severe flu pandemic could sicken 90 million people and kill 2 million Americans, or approximately two-thirds of one percent of the U.S. population. A pandemic could also push the economy into a recession, the CBO predicted. The likelihood of an influenza pandemic in any particular year is 3% to 4%, the agency said, having reviewed the records back to 1700. There were three global pandemics in the 20th century. “The most important effects would be a sharp decline in demand as people avoided shopping malls, restaurants and other public spaces, and a shrinking of labor supply as workers became ill or stayed home out of fear or to take care of others who were sick,” CBO said.